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第五問(wèn):如果給硅谷成功因素排個(gè)序怎么排?
72問(wèn)皮埃羅 / 硅谷的秘密
第五問(wèn):如果給硅谷成功因素排個(gè)序怎么排?

第五問(wèn):如果給硅谷成功因素排個(gè)序怎么排?

導(dǎo)語(yǔ):

感謝大家訂閱皮埃羅·斯加魯菲(Piero Scaruffi)的鈦媒體72問(wèn).知識(shí)專欄《硅谷的秘密》。我是今天的提問(wèn)者趙何娟。前幾期專欄皮埃羅跟我們說(shuō)了很多關(guān)于硅谷誕生背后的故事,那么如果給硅谷的那么多成功因素排個(gè)序的話,該怎么排呢?

The first and last one is easy. First is society and the last is government. Traditionally, we don't like the government even now the vast majority don’t like government to get involved we take the money very happy to take the money but we don't really like government to tell us what to do Silicon Valley is always viewed the government as very far, in Washington. Good, stay there, stay there. Sometimes when they asked me which city in china is more similar to the two Silicon Valley I think which city is very far from Beijing. Because that's our attitude. That’s easy.

我覺(jué)得很容易決定什么是最重要和最不重要的。最重要的是社會(huì)文化影響,最不重要的是政府支持。傳統(tǒng)上看,美國(guó)并不喜歡政府參與,社會(huì)也不歡迎政府干預(yù)。我們很樂(lè)意從政府手上拿錢,但是不喜歡政府指手畫腳。硅谷覺(jué)得政府距離他們很遠(yuǎn),因?yàn)槿A盛頓離硅谷很遠(yuǎn)。很好,政府就遠(yuǎn)離我們,別動(dòng)。有時(shí)候別人問(wèn)我:“中國(guó)有哪一個(gè)城市跟硅谷會(huì)比較像?”我會(huì)說(shuō)離北京遠(yuǎn)的城市會(huì)跟硅谷的相似度會(huì)更高。

The number one is society because it’s the society that creates this different attitude towards technology. Venture capital is a long story and I wish some of my venture capitalists were here so you can hear their version. In the book I write, in my opinion, venture capital has not been a positive force because venture capital tends to come after not before. And it distorts the market when capitalist come and invest in one thousand companies. And then most of these fail, the market crashes a lot of people lose their job it's unfair to blame the dot coms.

我們先來(lái)談社會(huì)文化的影響,硅谷的社會(huì)文化是包容科技的,但風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資又是另外一回事了。如果你而有其他的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人聊天,他們會(huì)給出不同的答案。我在書中寫的是,在硅谷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資并不是一個(gè)正面的角色,因?yàn)樗麄兪窃趧?chuàng)業(yè)公司有了起色后才進(jìn)行投資的。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人來(lái)到硅谷給1000個(gè)創(chuàng)業(yè)公司進(jìn)行投資時(shí),實(shí)際上,他們擾亂了技術(shù)市場(chǎng)。很多企業(yè)都失敗了,市場(chǎng)也完蛋了,很多的人因此失業(yè),所有責(zé)備失敗的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司是不公平的。

Of course, if you have an idea, you get the money. The distortion comes from the fact that venture capitalists tend to be a little stupid they invest in what is popular. Right now, as we speak probably they're investing a lot in artificial intelligence without even understanding. What it is that good or bad some people will tell you it's good because it helps a lot of artificial intelligence companies get started but my opinion is bad actually because it creates too much expectation that would probably not, create bubbles, was creating the bubbles in Silicon Valley. 

因?yàn)槿绻阌幸粋€(gè)想法,你就可以獲得投資。但風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資有一點(diǎn)很愚蠢的是,他們專門給時(shí)下流行的想法投錢。我想現(xiàn)在一定有很多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人給人工智能資金,但他們可能都不懂什么是人工智能。那風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資對(duì)人工智能到底是好還是壞呢?有的人可能會(huì)說(shuō)好,因?yàn)橛腥藭?huì)認(rèn)為這些錢幫助了很多人工智能的初創(chuàng)公司。但是我認(rèn)為這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資并不好,因?yàn)樗鼤?huì)導(dǎo)致人們對(duì)人工智能領(lǐng)域有太多的期望。投資會(huì)導(dǎo)致硅谷出現(xiàn)過(guò)多的泡沫。

I don't think you have to blame it on a Steve Jobs and the market and so on. Of course, they were very happy bubble creates bigger nets but you have to blame it on the retail is in my opinion that an eventual capital is a speculator. It is like in China the value of homes goes up a lot, because people start buying ten, twenty homes. Say that with the companies and so my feeling has always been that it was a negative force not a positive force, but again if my friends in the venture capitals were here, they would tell you the opposite. 

我不認(rèn)為有指責(zé)喬布斯或扎克伯格的需要,因?yàn)槊看伟l(fā)生市場(chǎng)泡沫的時(shí)候,都會(huì)出現(xiàn)很多位億萬(wàn)富翁。但我認(rèn)為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資需要負(fù)責(zé)任,因?yàn)轱L(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資就是在投機(jī)。這點(diǎn)跟中國(guó)的情況很像,中國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)高企是因?yàn)橛械娜藭?huì)買十幾,二十套房子。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資就是給很多公司投錢,所以我的看法是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資是起著消極的作用。然而,我也必須重申,如果我那些做風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的朋友在場(chǎng),他們一定會(huì)向你闡述另外一種觀點(diǎn)。

They would tell you, without our money, Silicon Valley would be nothing and there's also some truth in what they say. I would rank venture capital lower. One thing, two things I mentioned. One is the loss of California there was actually more important than the government in Washington. California has always had laws that are very loose the very, you know, they encourage business in many ways. The most famous is the fact that you can quit Apple and go work for a competitor of Apple. And the law in California tends to protect you, you cannot, of course, you cannot tell the secrets of Apple to another to a competitor but you can work in a very similar project. Yes, and in other states is not true and other countries is defining not true.

他們會(huì)告訴你,如果不是投資人給硅谷投錢,硅谷什么都不是。當(dāng)然,他們講的也不完全錯(cuò)。我不認(rèn)為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資有那么的重要。實(shí)際上加州的法律比政府還要重要。加州法律較為寬松,而且鼓勵(lì)創(chuàng)業(yè)。如果你在硅谷工作的話,你可以從Apple辭職,為其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手工作。加州的法律也會(huì)保護(hù)你的權(quán)益,但前提是你不能泄露Apple的商業(yè)機(jī)密。你可以為競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手做類似的項(xiàng)目,而在其他國(guó)家你可能就不能這么做。

So in California, it is always been much easier to quit the company and join the other company that makes a big difference because in silicon value expected if you stay if you worked for the same company for five years, people ask you why it sounds strange it almost sounds like you're not so good. Because if you are good a competitor should offer you money and so most of my friends a change job every two or three years, you meet them after one year or so first question is so you working for now because you expect them to change that's so easy because the loss in California make it easy in other places you have to be careful and also some companies will not hire you because they would be afraid that Apple see what ever so one thing you didn't ask is the loss of California and that make it a little easier to do these things.

在加州,你可以從一個(gè)公司跳槽到另外一個(gè)公司。這就會(huì)有很大的不同。在硅谷,如果你為同一家公司工作了五年,人們可能就會(huì)問(wèn)你為什么。這聽起來(lái)就很奇怪,因?yàn)閯e人問(wèn)你的時(shí)候,仿佛是在質(zhì)疑你是不是沒(méi)有那么好。因?yàn)槿绻阏娴暮軈柡?,?jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手應(yīng)該高薪挖走你。所以,我的朋友很多都換過(guò)老板。我們見(jiàn)面問(wèn)的第一句話就是“你現(xiàn)在為誰(shuí)工作?”加州的法律讓跳槽變得簡(jiǎn)單,但是在其他地方你要很謹(jǐn)慎。其他公司未必敢雇用你,因?yàn)樗麄兒ε略獾侥阍酒鹪V。所以你沒(méi)有提到的就是加州法律所帶來(lái)的影響,法律讓人們換工作變成很容易。

And then the other thing you didn't ask well I guess it maybe it's part of society but the bay area always had all these people protesting against technology, That's very important, actually. So we all had the two, almost like you I know you know the split brain the people have this disease where there are two people in one. The bay area is easily little bit like that so some the same place the bay area has people who love technology and it has people who hate technology and both are famous. And so these things create really a dialogue between maximum technology and minimum technology. So you have people who actually say my buy I’ll go live forest literally and they created commune and live in the forest and they are very happy we not technology and then you have all these high tech startups so that actually I see that as very very useful. I think that as a contributing to new ideas.

你沒(méi)有提到社會(huì)問(wèn)題。其實(shí)在舊金山灣區(qū)也有抗議發(fā)展技術(shù)的人,這也是很重要的影響因素。舊金山灣區(qū)有熱愛(ài)技術(shù)的人,也有很討厭科技的人。舊金山的這兩種人都很出名,也引起了一些爭(zhēng)論:我們是要把技術(shù)用到極致,還是盡量少用技術(shù)?在舊金山你會(huì)遇到一些人說(shuō):“再見(jiàn)了,我要去森林里住了。”他們也的確這么做了,在森林里過(guò)得還很滋潤(rùn),而且沒(méi)有使用任何現(xiàn)代科技。與此同時(shí),硅谷有很多高科技創(chuàng)業(yè)公司。所有你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),這也是很重要的影響因素,因?yàn)檫@種爭(zhēng)論也帶來(lái)了新的想法。

Yeah even even talents. I was going to say something about talent. I mean, to me talents should be rephrased as immigration because every place in the world has talents. I mean there are no stupid people in the world. In any country is a lot of very intelligent people the big advantage that we have is that you want to come to Silicon Valley. You know, that's a big advantage and as I said that there were young educated people coming from everywhere when I present when I talk about artificial intelligence. I have a slide it's mainly to wake up people but it's an interesting slide. You know I list all the people who invented today artificial intelligence the new artificial intelligence. And for each person I write next to it where it was born you go through the list not one born in the United States.

還有就是人才因素。我也想談?wù)撘幌氯瞬?,我認(rèn)為人才就是移民。我覺(jué)得世界上沒(méi)有蠢人,每個(gè)國(guó)家都有很多人才,而硅谷的優(yōu)勢(shì)就是人才想要過(guò)來(lái)。這是一個(gè)很大的優(yōu)勢(shì)。我先前所提到,我們這里有來(lái)自世界各地的受過(guò)高等教育的年輕人才。我也做了一個(gè)小統(tǒng)計(jì),記錄現(xiàn)在大熱的人工智能領(lǐng)域的工程師來(lái)源國(guó)。你看一下清單,就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)沒(méi)有一個(gè)人是在美國(guó)出生的。

Deep learning was all invented by people who were born outside the United States but now you think of deep learning at Silicon Valley but they were not born there. So talents are everywhere if you just write talents I put it last because every country has it but if you write immigrants then is very high I mean this power the Silicon Valley has to attract foreigners it's a big contribution. 

人工智能也是由美國(guó)以外出生的人所發(fā)明的?,F(xiàn)在你提到硅谷的深度學(xué)習(xí),你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)這些工程師都不是美國(guó)人,所以到處都有人才,你不能只提到人才,因?yàn)槊總€(gè)國(guó)家都有人才。但是你可以說(shuō)影響硅谷的是這里的移民,硅谷能夠吸引外國(guó)人來(lái)為我們做貢獻(xiàn)。

It's even difficult to quantify how much the United States as a whole as you know is a country of immigrants so in immigrants have always been important. But in California it’s very high, in the Bay Area it’s colossal, it could be ninety percent of the innovation we have come from immigrants, meaning also from other states. Ok, Steve jobs is the exception. He was raised in Silicon Valley but if you look through all the other people almost all of them came from somewhere else so that's a big big powerful thing so it depends, if you just call it talent, it’s the last one if you call it immigrants.

美國(guó)總的來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)移民國(guó)家,移民對(duì)美國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)很重要;對(duì)加州來(lái)說(shuō),移民非常重要;對(duì)舊金山灣區(qū)來(lái)說(shuō),移民至關(guān)重要。這里90%以上的創(chuàng)新發(fā)明都是移民做出的,他們都不是在美國(guó)出生,但喬布斯是一個(gè)特例,他是在美國(guó)長(zhǎng)大的移民后代。如果你看看其他人,他們基本都不是在美國(guó)出生。移民是非常有影響力的因素。如果你將把它成為人才因素,我覺(jué)得那就是最不重要的因素了。

immigrants and then I would say, I would say the laws. So last one is government and that’s sixth, this is fifth. So most important factor for Silicon Valley in my opinion is the society, the culture. And it's a complex culture, a complex society and it’s unique and that's what makes Silicon Valley unique. And that's why it's so difficult to replicate Silicon Valley in other places we don't have another Silicon Valley in the United States.

第二重要的是移民因素,第三重要的是加州的法律,最不重要的是政府。政府是第五還是第六個(gè)因素。所以我重復(fù)一遍,最重要的就是硅谷的社會(huì)文化。硅谷的社會(huì)文化很復(fù)雜,所以硅谷是獨(dú)一無(wú)二的。其他國(guó)家也無(wú)法復(fù)制,美國(guó)也沒(méi)有第二個(gè)硅谷。

The second I would say, immigration, in the contribution of immigrants is very important even if some of them some of them don't found companies, they don't become famous like Steve Jobs and Mark Zuckerberg. But if you look at the people who work for them, the engineers, even some of the marketing people some of the people really created the trends. And those are immigrants so I think they are very important. 

第二重要的因素就是移民。移民對(duì)于硅谷的共享非常重要。一些移民沒(méi)有創(chuàng)業(yè),不如喬布斯或是扎克伯格出名,但是你看看,很多硅谷為喬布斯或扎克伯格工作的工程師、銷售人員或者引領(lǐng)趨勢(shì)的人都是移民。所以我認(rèn)為移民是很重要的影響因素。

And then the laws in California were important, because they helped create this attitude toward changing jobs, don't be afraid to fail this. All the things I told you about the society are true also because the laws of California make it easy in some countries if you fail you go to jail. That makes a difference, right? 

加州的法律當(dāng)然也很重要了,因?yàn)榧又莸姆勺屓烁矣趽Q工作,不害怕失敗??梢哉f(shuō)加州的法律讓跳槽、創(chuàng)業(yè)變得非常的簡(jiǎn)單。在一些國(guó)家如果你創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗的話,可能要進(jìn)監(jiān)獄。所以這就是很大的差別。

So number four would be the capital venture capital which was useful for some things, but I think it tends to distort. I think it slows down innovation, actually. Because the money doesn't go into real innovation, but it goes into exploiting innovation making money out of innovation. 

第四重要的是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。講真的,他有一定的積極影響,但我覺(jué)得消極影響占更多。這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資會(huì)降低人們創(chuàng)新的積極性。因?yàn)檫@些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的資金并沒(méi)有真正的用到創(chuàng)新上,他們利用這些資金去榨取創(chuàng)新,想要通過(guò)創(chuàng)新賺更多的錢。

And the last one, the government. Government has an indirect role a government so why we take the money from the government if we don't particularly like the government. We don't like to get orders take orders but we like the money the advantage of government money is that its long term. Venture capitals are short term they give you money but then they want to return in two years. So you are forced to abandon their research and try to focus on the pothole founders by the way were very smart at avoiding that problem by any way that's an exception. 

最不重要的就是政府的影響,政府對(duì)硅谷的影響都是間接的。我們不喜歡政府對(duì)我們指手畫腳,但是我們不介意從政府那里獲得資金,因?yàn)檎馁Y金都是長(zhǎng)期投資,而風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資只是一些短期貸款。他們投資你的想法,但是要求你在未來(lái)兩年為他們帶來(lái)巨大的收益,所以你不得不放棄做科研,去關(guān)注如何做一個(gè)好的產(chǎn)品

In general, venture capital is short-term, so when it very often kills the research. It wants to market what you have now. Government money is long term government is thinking in terms of war. So what do you don’t need to return tomorrow morning. If your research doesn't do anything useful for ten years, it’s fine. Government is thinking at ten years from now, I will have better missiles or better satellites whatever. So that's why we take the money from the government, because it's like a long-term venture capital. But otherwise, we don't particularly like it. 

但總的來(lái)說(shuō),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資都是一些短期的投資,他們想讓你把手頭上的發(fā)明投入市場(chǎng)。政府的資金是長(zhǎng)期投資,因?yàn)檎紤]到的是戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的問(wèn)題,而且你還不需要還錢。如果你拿到政府的資金,你可以專心做研究。政府會(huì)給你10年時(shí)間,做出更好的導(dǎo)彈或衛(wèi)星。所以,我們也會(huì)從政府那里拿到投資,因?yàn)檎腻X更像是長(zhǎng)期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。否則在其他情況下,我們通常不喜歡政府。

And I really don't think government was, it's not a matter of liking not liking. Sometimes we like it I mean Silicon Valley obviously liked Obama, dislike Trump. Everybody knows this but it's just that government did not plan Silicon Valley. So that's why ranks last. There wasn’t a day when somebody told the president there is a place called Silicon Valley or there was a day when the President was watching TV and ask her what is this Silicon Valley. It was not planned by him. So, in this sense, the government did not have a direct influence on Silicon Valley. 

不過(guò)我們不會(huì)考慮是否喜歡政府的問(wèn)題。有時(shí)候我們還是喜歡政府的,我是說(shuō)以前,在硅谷大家都喜歡奧巴馬,但是討厭特朗普。政府沒(méi)有想要打造出硅谷,所以這就是我把它排到最后了。以前沒(méi)有人告訴總統(tǒng),未來(lái)會(huì)有一個(gè)硅谷;也不會(huì)有美國(guó)總統(tǒng)看到電視介紹硅谷是什么樣的,他們都沒(méi)有為硅谷做出規(guī)劃,所以政府對(duì)硅谷的都是間接影響。

In fact, the US government invested in many technology areas in the United States and put more money in other areas. So they never said number one is San Francisco Bay Area, never! Actually, I think the opposite I think there are many places in the United States that offer more benefits to high tech, in Seattle sets lower taxes. I think almost everybody is lower taxes in California to Texas. There's many states they really encourage Silicon Valley companies to move out of the Bay Area. And in some cases, that has happened. In Intel has a big factory is I think in Oregon whatever and of course it is well known. Many countries have better laws. 

實(shí)際上,美國(guó)政府在技術(shù)領(lǐng)域上花了很多錢進(jìn)行研究,但是他們?cè)谄渌胤降耐度肷踔粮?。美?guó)政府沒(méi)有說(shuō)他們給舊金山灣區(qū)投入最多資金。但在美國(guó)有很多地方會(huì)給高新技術(shù)開綠燈,如西雅圖的稅率更低。我認(rèn)為,很多地方的稅收都比加州的低,有很多州都鼓勵(lì)硅谷的大公司搬到他們州去。他們還提供一些稅收優(yōu)惠,而這些政策也有一定的成效。英特爾就把工廠搬到俄勒岡了。當(dāng)然,很多國(guó)家也有更低的稅率。

Apple smart phones are not made in the bay area the made in China or Taiwan. and so on somebody was telling me that the Bay Area employs millions of people many more than we think. Why? Because you have to count also the ones that are outside of the United States. So I think, in general, government has not helped Silicon Valley much. Other governments helped their sort of Silicon Valley more. Where the government has helped is indirectly. Again, indirectly.

一個(gè)很好的例子就是iPhone, iPhone都不是在美國(guó)生產(chǎn)的,基本是在中國(guó)或者是中國(guó)臺(tái)灣生產(chǎn)的。有人告訴我舊金山灣區(qū)雇用了成千上萬(wàn)的人,甚至比我們想象的要多。為什么?因?yàn)檫€要算上這些公司海外工廠提供的就業(yè)崗位??偟膩?lái)說(shuō)美國(guó)政府對(duì)硅谷沒(méi)有太多影響,特別是相比其他國(guó)家政府對(duì)高科技園區(qū)的扶持力度。

Bill Clinton’s vice president Al Gore was influential and decided that the internet should become a commercial network. The internet was invented as a government network for the military and for research. So when, I think, in 1992, maybe it wasn't him but anyway that the internet should become a commercial network that was very important. That's why we had the dot com. Before that it was difficult to make any. Any commercial activity on the internet was discouraged if not illegal so there was very important there was also a law in the 60s or 70s when the government decided it will help any venture capitalist was willing to invest in a high technology because Silicon Valley was one of the beneficiaries. I see, but these decisions were not about Silicon Valley they were about the whole United States and whine why Silicon Valley had bigger returns or benefits from these decisions on that that's because Silicon Valley was special enough but those decisions by the government were not specifically to help Silicon Valley where to help their whole country.

比爾·克林頓的副總統(tǒng)阿爾·戈?duì)柺且粋€(gè)很有影響力的人,他決定了把互聯(lián)網(wǎng)做成商業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。當(dāng)時(shí)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)是政府所發(fā)明的,主要用于軍事和研究。在1992年,我也不記得是不是戈?duì)栒f(shuō)的,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)要成為一種商業(yè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。之后才有了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫。在此之前,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)商業(yè)化都是違法行為。在60或70年代,美國(guó)有一部法律讓風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人能夠投資高科技領(lǐng)域,而硅谷可以從中受益。但是這些決策都不只是針對(duì)硅谷,而是針對(duì)全美國(guó)的。為什么硅谷能夠有更多的收益?那是因?yàn)楣韫群芴貏e,但政府決策的目的不是扶植硅谷,而是想幫助全美國(guó)的科技發(fā)展。

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  • 回復(fù)

    果然社會(huì)文化是基礎(chǔ)。這也是中國(guó)很難出現(xiàn)類似硅谷的存在,所以不應(yīng)該老想著復(fù)制硅谷。

    2018.05.31 19:30 via iphone
  • 回復(fù)

    中國(guó)有自己的優(yōu)勢(shì),可以借鑒硅谷的一些因素,但不能直接就是“拿來(lái)主義”。

    2018.05.14 10:20 via iphone
  • 回復(fù)

    真的是要留住人才。

    2018.05.12 07:40 via iphone
  • 回復(fù)

    所以皮埃羅認(rèn)為硅谷出現(xiàn)的泡沫都是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資引發(fā)的?

    2018.05.01 20:20 via iphone

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